Nasdaq seeks prediction market product approval from SEC

Nasdaq, the New York-based exchange operator is seeking to list binary ⁠options on its Nasdaq 100 index and the Nasdaq ​100 micro index, according to a regulatory ‌filing. This marks Nasdaq's latest prediction market push.

Source: Reuters

➡️ Why this matters

The exchange business is a scale game.

Volume is oxygen.

Prediction markets are emerging as a greenfield revenue pool inside regulated venues.

Consider these data points:

1️⃣ Robinhood's Q4 result gave the best signal. While its crypto trading cratered -38% YoY due to market conditions, its prediction market volume was +200%. In 2025, it saw $12B in prediction market contracts traded on its platform. For the first two months of 2026, the volume already crossed $4B.

More details here on Robinhood's latest earnings: https://lnkd.in/e3jrxgvR

2️⃣ The two biggest prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, are both recording $1B+ volume on a weekly basis, generating close to $1M in revenue each.

With the CFTC Chair Michael Selig recently both declaring agency's authority over the predictions market and supporting its growth, Nasdaq cannot afford to sit on the sidelines and watch the business getting away. Nor can its peers. Options specialist CBOE is targeting Q2 launch of similar products pending SEC approval.

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